NRFI Picks — August 17, 2026

Today's Free NRFI Pick — San Diego Padres @ New York Mets

Today's board: 1 ELITE, 1 GREEN, 1 YELLOW, 8 PASS across 11 games.

Today's free release: a clean first inning in San Diego Padres at New York Mets.

On the San Diego Padres side, Walker Buehler shows a 1% clean-first rate this season — 1% over his last 5 starts.

On the New York Mets side, Nolan McLean shows a 1% clean-first rate this season — 1% over his last 5 starts.

Tier: YELLOW · Price: -136 · Citi Field

This is pick #3 on today's board. Members see the full ranked board — including picks #1 and #2 — every morning.

Yesterday's Graded Results — August 16, 2026

No picks were released (off day or pass day) — nothing to grade.

Season NRFI Record

155-86 graded picks · +40.87u units · +16.957192380938814% ROI · +3.910300566666667% avg CLV.

Every released pick is graded and published — wins, losses, and postponements. See the full graded record.

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Members get the full ranked board every morning — Sharp Pass unlocks it at 9:15 AM ET with prices, break-evens, and model reasoning.

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NRFI Betting FAQ

What is an NRFI bet?

NRFI stands for No Run First Inning — a baseball bet that neither team scores in the first inning of a game. It settles as soon as the first inning ends, win or lose.

How are NRFIKING picks made?

Every MLB game on the slate is scored by a model that weighs both starting pitchers' first-inning history, recent form, and matchup context, then applies a safety checklist. Only games that clear every check qualify as picks.

Is the free NRFI pick really free?

Yes. One qualifying pick from the board is released free every day it clears the model's checklist. Members get the full ranked board earlier in the morning.

What happens on a PASS day?

If not enough games clear the safety checklist, the model passes rather than forcing a play. Passing is part of the edge — the record you see includes only real released picks.